On the Mid-Q Monetary Policy announced by Raghuram Rajan
Mumbai Sep 20 2013(Sailesh Gandhi): Markets have reacted adversely to the surprise hike in the repo rate by the Governor of Reserve Bank of India in the Monetary Policy announcement today. The Market expectations of status quo at the worst or a cut in repo rate in my view were clearly part of the euphoria generated from out of the positive developments on several fronts during the last few weeks post the assumption of charge by Mr. Raghuram Rajan as Governor of RBI.However, the inflation statistics and the food inflation in particular should be of serious concern to all policy makers. I believe the new Governor is sending a strong signal to markets of his unhesitating ability to take unpopular decisions if such decisions are warranted by ground realities. The Governor has sent a strong message so early in his tenure to the market “don’t take me for granted”.
The deferment in withdrawal of quantitative easing by US has given Indian policy makers a breathing space of three months at the least and six months at the best. It is important that key policy decisions to insulate the economy (to the extent possible on final QE withdrawal by US must be taken quickly even if some of these decisions are not popular).
While the tight interest rate outlook continues to be on cards in the short run definitely, Reserve Bank of India will need to address the issues of sufficient liquidity in markets given that the busy season is now round the corner. The management of the currency exchange rate is the other major issue which will have to be addressed. Allowing the Rupee to strengthen beyond current levels may not be actually in the interest of the overall economy in general and exporters in particular.
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